The money is there, but not for all. Officials and experts about the economic Outlook
Article from the newspaper: the Weekly “Arguments and Facts” № 25 22/06/2016
Many members of the International economic forum in St. Petersburg last week, exuded optimism. “AiF” asked the experts whether there is a basis for this.
Economic forum in St. Petersburg brought a lot of good news. © / Ramil Sitdikov / RIA Novosti
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The growth of the economy
Alexei Ulyukayev, Minister of economic development of Russia, speaking on the forum:
Low point of the recession passed, there is a rapid economic recovery. Since the third quarter, the Russian economy will show growth. The recession in the economy will completely cease by the end of this year.”
“On the one hand, we see numbers, seems to be confirming official optimism – says Nikita Isaev, Director of the Institute of contemporary economy. – Inflation today less than 7.5%, the situation on the labor market is stable, there is no need to urgently revise the budget, the Central Bank lowered the rate, even slightly, the ruble is more expensive… But it is only a consequence of higher oil prices. I recall that in I quarter of the Federal tax service lost nearly half a trillion rubles (18% of the target) to the state budget due to the reduction in the number of enterprises and revenues from them. The Federal customs service has recorded another drop in imports by 25 to 32% – still minus 200 billion rubles customs fees. All these losses kompensiruet at the expense of the Reserve Fund, which only in April decreased by 11%. The government at once to get into the Reserve Fund, reducing the budget, and informally, just by cutting funding expenditures – articles there, but the money ministries not listed. The amount of such reductions amounted to more than 13%. Therefore, the opinion of Mr. speaker on the Outlook for our economy too optimistic”.
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About inflation
Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank, speaking at the forum:
“We are building our policy so to achieve the goal of reducing inflation to 4% by the end of next year, and we believe this is an absolutely realistic scenario.”
Alexei Ulyukayev, speaking at the forum:
“With a high degree of probability will be less than 6% (inflation at the end of this year. – Ed.)“.
“The inflation forecast may come true, if we weaken the sanctions, more expensive oil, will cancel the food embargo, strengthened the ruble, – says Alexander Abramov, Professor of Economics. – Because the positive changes promised by the end of 2017, apparently, the financial authorities are waiting for changes in external factors by the end of 2016.”
On the ruble
Alexei Ulyukayev, speaking at the forum:
“I will not say if we are going to revise its forecast (67,5 rubles per dollar – Ed.) but there is a significant chance that there will be stronger value of the rouble than we have in the forecast. Because the prediction is made based on oil prices of us $ 40., and today she is somewhat different”.
“Prerequisites for the growth of the ruble is, – said Konstantin Korischenko, the former Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. – At least because its further strengthening or weakening depends on the dynamics of oil prices. And the probability of growth is higher than the probability of decline. However, the strengthening of the ruble does not need budget. The weaker the ruble, the ruble more income to do this.
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On the budget
Anton Siluanov, Russian Finance Minister, speaking at the forum:
“We are aiming to have the budget deficit at an oil price of $ 40. per barrel to 3% of GDP”.
“This year the deficit is expected to reach 3.3 percent of GDP. This may be my rating is 3,3-3,5%, – says Alexei Kudrin, ex-Finance Minister. – The deficit will reduce, for example, revenues from privatization of “Rosneft”, the increase of deductions from profit of the Central Bank. But next year, if not cut spending, the budget deficit will grow. To inadequate expenditure I include subsidies to some businesses that are not a priority, but the hundreds of billions of rubles. They may be waived, but the indexation of pensions to refuse”.
On the contingency Fund
Anton Siluanov, speaking at the forum:
“The reserve Fund will be protected. We won’t waste it to the end, to zero.
“In the next two years a large part of the budget deficit it is better to cover through reserves, – said Alexei Kudrin. – Provision for and designed to when the price dropped, have a 2-3 year transition period. And during these 3 years, you need to cut costs. We win time. Without reserve we could only perform half of the program for the procurement of weapons. In this case it would be necessary not only to index, but to freeze all kinds of salaries and social payments. The reserve allows us not to. It is a 2.5 trillion per year! What is 2.5 trillion rubles.? All higher education is worth 600 billion rubles, the construction of all roads worth RUB 700 billion We just saved the entire economy, and without this money would collapse…”
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Do we have money?
Tatyana Golikova, the head of the accounts chamber of the Russian Federation, speaking on the forum:
“The money the country has no effective institutions to manage these money.
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“Money in the country really is, and many agree Sergei hestanov, associate Professor of financial markets Ranepa. – A strong argument in favor of this thesis – the low rates on bonds and Bank deposits. But there is money in the banking system and the real sector as they go. For those waiting for money from the state, – they are not. Their Prime Minister has asked to “stay.”
See also: St. Petersburg international economic forum in 2016. Help
