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The budget for 2017 will calculate based on $40 per barrel

Бюджет на 2017 год рассчитают исходя из $40 за баррель

Indexing of pensions for inflation are planning to return next year

The head of the government Dmitry Medvedev has held meeting on budget formation next year and in 2018 and 2019. The Prime Minister said that the budget should be formed based on the target price of $40 per barrel of Brent crude oil.

— Budget forecast will be difficult. Some improvements in the oil markets should not deceive. The price of oil above$ 50 a barrel, but I remind you that last year was a similar situation. The first quarter was at low values, then the figure rose to $60, and then fell to the well-known indicators. It is not known how sustainable is the trend. It is necessary to lay a conservative oil price forecast. We need to find the average value: about $40. It is an appropriate rating, ” he said.

The Prime Minister also drew attention to the fact that should be possible to plan costs. To a greater extent this applies to regional and local budgets.

— The budget system should remain stable and balanced. It is necessary to fix the budget deficit and understand from what sources it will Finance — continued Dmitry Medvedev, drawing attention to the need to curb inflation.

Separate mention was made of measures of social support, including pensions.

— If the conditions, you will need to return to the indexation of pensions to inflation, Prime Minister concluded.

Economists believe that the budget planning therefore is a difficult but extremely crucial choice.

Director of the Institute of Economics RAS Ruslan Grinberg, commenting on the new budget plan, said that in this case, the government expects the draft budget with options low oil prices, then to have more income.

— What will happen to prices next year, it is not known — said the expert.

In turn, economist and political scientist Nikita Maslennikov believes that this choice — serious and responsible.

— The forecasting of the budget should always come from conservative and hard estimates, he stressed. — In the past years we have always overstated their predictions, and it eventually turned into the current budget imbalance adjustments.

The economist said that if the government will come up with a price of oil of $40 per barrel, this estimate is quite conservative and rigid.

The real price is likely to be higher and in some years can differ by a large enough amount in the plus, ” said Maslennikov. But budget planning on the basis of such rates means that it will be incorporated a much higher degree of durability than it is now.

According to the expert, for the budget it will mean the choice in favor of cost efficiencies.

— Planning of budget based on oil price of $40 plus improving the efficiency of public spending will mean the unit social costs of transition to their target and targeted — said Nikita Maslennikov. — Thus, through the social sustainability created the common background macroeconomic implications for the transition to a new model of economic development, new sources of growth is not so dependent on exports of liquid hydrocarbons.

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