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Go away for good: at the SPIEF predicted the elimination of 90% of the banks

 

Уйдите по-хорошему: на ПМЭФ предрекли ликвидацию 90% банков

The Russian President acknowledged that the rapid growth of our economy in the coming years is not threatened

Photo: TASS

The most acute problems in the Russian economy have been solved, growth will resume soon, said President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the St. Petersburg international economic forum. However, the key for the banking system, the statement made on the second day of the forum was disturbing: the head of the Agency warned about the possible elimination of up to 90% of the banks.

“Today we are talking about more modest numbers

Russia was able to solve the most acute current problems in the economy and in the short term, you can expect to resume growth, said Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg international economic forum (SPIEF).

“We have kept reserves, significantly reduced the outflow of capital compared to the first quarter of 2015, five times. (Here, however, it is unclear whether to be happy because there is a suspicion that just more not much back there to leak.) Reduced inflation. If you take a month-to-month, for the previous period between, say, 2015 and 2014, we can say that if you take the 2016 and 2015 — almost twice the inflation rate decreased”, — the President listed. In his opinion, inflation rate of 4-5% in the medium term is achievable. Recall: the Bank aims to achieve 4% annual inflation by the end of 2017.

The goal is to achieve economic growth at 4% per year, Putin said. “Yes, of course I remember what we talked about previous years. Today we are talking about more modest figures”, — he said and recalled that the current economic slowdown is a global trend.

Haven’t solved the structural problems in the global economy, said the President and complained of “barriers to the flow of breakthrough technologies in other regions of the world.”

One of the key challenges for the Russian economy, Putin called the decline in the budget deficit (about which much has been said on the first day of the forum) and reduce the dependence of the budget from hydrocarbons. “In the next 5-7 years should at least halve the non — oil deficit,” he said.

Mentioned the head of state about the need to improve the business climate. You need to improve the transparency of the relationship of government and business, to reduce opportunities for illegal criminal prosecution, declared the President. “Representatives of power structures should be held personally responsible for inappropriate actions that led to the destruction of the business. I believe that this liability may be criminal,” — said Putin.

The most important factor that determines economic growth — labor productivity. “We need productivity growth at least 5% per year”, — said the head of state.

Businesses that are ready to solve such problems, needs to obtain access to Finance, including through development institutions, Putin added. A key objective of the development Bank Vnesheconombank will be high-tech projects, said the President.

The Chairman of the Bank Sergey Gorkov has noted that development banks — not only in Russia but in the world de facto was not ready for market changes. Judging by financial indicators, for Vnesheconombank this applies in full measure.

“The fluctuation of the markets happens much more often than the life of the loans that are issued development banks. The credit which gives the Bank the development is ten years or more. However, over the last ten years, we have seen two crises that have seriously changed the situation in the economy,” he said. According to him, development banks are not yet able to find a niche that found commercial banks have learned to manage risk, raise interest rates, reduce the time (lending … — Approx. ed.).

“The question is whether we will allow the bankers to leave on good terms”

However, the banking system is not so rosy — this assessment was voiced at a panel session on “Banking sector: adapting to the new conditions”. The loud statement was made by General Director of state Corporation “Agency on insurance of contributions” Yuri Isayev, who invited the state to intervene in the banking consolidation in order to avoid the elimination of up to 90% of the existing banks.

Consolidation and exit of banks from the market is inevitable. The question is whether we will allow an opportunity for the bankers to leave on good terms, or they all pass through the crucible of compulsory liquidation and bankruptcy. To leave on good bankers is now impossible because it is impossible to sell your business in the market… If the government does not intervene in such consolidation, at least 80% and even 90% of the remaining banks will go through the procedure is not very pleasant communication with the DIA — said Isayev. “If this consolidation is government controlled, then we will have the strength to the remaining banks, so to speak, to process and “bury”. If some will be opening on consolidation, then we will have less work”.

According to him, there is a chance that the consolidation process can be relatively peaceful if the people from your business to come before the moment when things got really bad.”

According to ASV, which voiced its head, is now in the process of liquidation are 264 Russian Bank, while existing banks in the country today 567. “This shows the scale of the problems that have accumulated in the banking system,” — said Isayev, noting that initially, the Agency calculated on the simultaneous holding of two or three redevelopments and 10-20 liquidation of banks. In the process of readjustment is now 32 projects, 22 completed, he said.

The CEO of the Corporation for the first time gave a figure for the entire history of the Agency has paid 1 trillion rubles to 2.5 million contributors, with only starting in 2016, was paid 250 billion. The duty of the Agency to the Bank of Russia now amounts to 358 billion rubles, and until the end of the year he could double, warned Isaev. To balance the system and reduce the burden of Fund on insurance of contributions in the future new approaches — bail-in and Deposit insurance of legal entities.

The banking system needs changes of a revolutionary character, as the situation there is unstable, said the General Director of the Analytical credit rating Agency (ACRA) Ekaterina Trofimova. According to her, the current inertial development of the banking system will not provide sector level return on equity more than 1%. It is also believed that the industry needed consolidation.

“We need to talk about the intensification of the processes of mergers and acquisitions, acceleration of departures of players of the market,” she said. “Many are looking toward the banking sector as a potential driver of economic growth. I do not share this position, I see no prerequisites, strength, the ability to rekapitalizatsija banking system. She continues to focus on large structures, but to talk about a significant consolidation of the banking system is still not necessary. The number of banks is shrinking, but it is not a qualitative change,” — said Trofimov.

In this case the existing problems in the banking system of the Russian Federation is not a crisis, and the consequences of the crises of 1998 and 2008, I’m sure Isaev. “The regulator is now doing the job that they were supposed to do for the last sixteen years and more,” — said Isayev. What is happening with the banks, is one of the most problematic stages, which requires not just a defensive response to current circumstances, but also rethink the situation, said Trofimova.

Estimated ACRES in 2016, the profit of the banking system will be 400-450 billion rubles, and in the future will be in the region of 600-700 billion rubles annually, predicts Ekaterina Trofimova. Recall that in 2014 the profit of banks of the Russian Federation, according to the Central Bank, amounted to 589 billion rubles, in 2015-m — 192 billion.

“It is absolutely clear what to do!”

Meanwhile, in the vast forum polemics about the fate of oil and commodity revenues. The business Breakfast of Sberbank, which started with peaceful dialogue on the topic of “is There life after oil”, suddenly became an arena of confrontation of Ministers of the economic block.

In his opening remarks, the head of Sberbank German Gref said that the neighboring countries successfully develop alternative energy, while Russia is trying to “catch the tail” of the oil era. “It brings a little bit sad notes” — said Gref.

In the next 20 years oil will remain the main resource, and Russia should not be ashamed of their benefits, retorted the head of Ministry Alexander Novak.

“Until 2040, the hydrocarbons will be key energy source in the world. Russia, as one of the major manufacturers has the advantages, it would be foolish to lose these benefits. In the run up to 2040, oil and hydrocarbons will be the dominant energy sources, although the share of renewable energy sources will increase,” — said Novak.

He also expressed doubt that the electric cars, about which so much talk, will change the world.

“I don’t agree with you. As a Tesla owner I can say that it’s a different quality that while people can’t share because of high prices. She’s smart, knows how to do many things that are not yet able to do neither BMW nor Mercedes,” — said Gref. And drew attention to the fact that the forecasts of development of the technology to do it is problematic.

Oil will remain the main sources of energy, agreed with the Russian Minister, the Executive Director of Royal Dutch Shell Ben van beurden. And the head of the French Total Patrick LuAnn pointed to the need to invest in the development of renewable sources of energy. However, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said that the investment in alternative energy sources do not give returns and this topic is infinitely expensive”. So you need to wait until renewable becomes cheaper, he said.

“We are waiting for when the technology will become cheaper. Why pay a high price when you can implement something that has already been tested in the world. Someone may say that this slows down development, but it is more rational from the point of view of the consumer,” — said the official.

The tone of the conversation changed when the word was transferred to the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, the question of what to do in the new world oil power.

“It is absolutely clear that we need to do! Need to stop trying to guess what oil will be in determining our forecasts. We create our own shocks, they create problems for the budget, the economy, of course, for monetary policy, because I want to hope that oil will return to 100 dollars per barrel, we will increase wages and pensions,” rather abruptly said the Minister. It is suggested to plan the budget, focusing on the structural price of oil is $ 40-50 per barrel. If the price will be higher, the additional income will be accumulated in the funds. “We need to protect our economy from fluctuations in oil prices”, — concluded the Minister.

Millennial horizons of the Minister Ulyukayev

The Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev unexpectedly made an ironic remark about the artificiality of such discussions.

“The debate over oil age is our future or past, I found in 1870; perhaps she was before. One point of view — that is how little proven reserves and the price will be astronomically off with the other — so fast changes in consumption that the price will decline. At short range both points of view have right to exist for long — they’re both wrong. As for the talk about renewable or non-renewable sources of energy. All renewable. Hydrocarbons — is solar energy transformed in a certain way. All our sources is the energy of the sun. Depends on the horizon. You have a horizon of three months or three thousand years? That depends on your attitude to energy sources,” Ulyukayev said.

The subtle irony was replaced by the hard skepticism with regard to the position of the Ministry of Finance.

“Let’s get out of my head will take some price and will build it under our lives. What is the probability that it will be? You know, like in the example about the probability of meeting with the green monkey. What is the probability? 50: 50 will meet or not,” Ulyukayev said.

“Let’s take the zero, or minus ten, and will be even better from the point of view of macroeconomics” — ironically the speaker. He called the Ministry’s position “response to the poor quality of the public administration system”. “This is a response to the poor quality of the public administration system: “let the surplus is taken to reserves. We need a fiscal rule, but we need the right budget, which orients us to the development. And you propose to remove money from the market, as they believe that the market is unable to dispose of them. As if we were holders of secret knowledge and inform you about all how to work,” — said Ulyukayev, by summarizing that it is necessary “to resolve the devastation in their heads”, changing the system of public administration.

He also spoke about the fact that it is not necessary to divide the expenditure budget for the protected and unprotected”.

“Of course, it’s a shame”

“Fire” conversation, said the former Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, head of Center for strategic development Alexey Kudrin, who called the incident the collapse of the ruble a shame for the country, particularly its economic authorities.

“The collapse of the national currency by more than two times — for economic authorities is a disgrace, as and for the country. This means that we can not create stable conditions for business,” said Kudrin.

He stressed that such a situation has led to the dependence on oil prices. “We have received from the world by $ 200 billion and have become very dependent on these values”, — he stated. Subsequently, the economist explained to journalists his words, calling not to blame for the fall of the national currency, the Bank of Russia, but from the evaluation of “shame” refused.

“Of course, it’s a shame. But to let the ruble had CB there is nothing I could do about it. Floating exchange rate is inevitable,” Kudrin said.

The head of the CSR again said that the government is not supposed to create the economy’s dependence on oil and spend money. He noted that the economic bloc has a lot to learn from colleagues from Saudi Arabia or Norway. “The experience of Saudi Arabia and Norway, which have even more income from oil showed that it can be avoided”, concluded the speaker.

Elena PETEROVA, Anna PONOMAREVA, Banki.ru, Saint-Petersburg

Source: Banki.ru

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